Adam Goldin is an economist at Moody Analytics.
Here you’ll find European macroeconomics performance, analysis of global financial markets, and Canadian economic commentaries, as well as real-time analysis of high-frequency macroeconomics indicators for the U.S. and Canada.
“The devastating Alberta wildfires will have steep economic costs. The fires, searing more than 210,000 acres, have destroyed or damaged about 1,600 structures,…”Alberta Wildfires Scorch the Economy
“Exchange rate market participants are increasingly worried that currency market liquidity is drying up, despite the market’s mammoth $5.3 trillion…”Currency Market Volatility Rises
“The devastating wildfire sweeping across Alberta will have steep economic costs. There could be permanent displacement of evacuees; Fort McMurray was…”Alberta After the Fires
“Temporary influences on inflation should dissipate this year. Canadian headline consumer prices are estimated to have risen 1.4% year over year in March, while core prices are estimated to have risen 1.7%. On a monthly…”Rising Oil Prices to Lift Canada's Headline Inflation
“Actual, previous and consensus values with detailed economic analysis for United States Treasury International Capital Flows.”United States: Treasury International Capital Flows
“Actual, previous and consensus values with detailed economic analysis for Canada International Transactions in Securities.”Canada: International Transactions in Securities
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“With the new government budget much more focused on deficit spending rather than austerity, that will boost the economy even more,” said Adam Goldin, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. “There is actually an upside potential, not a big one, that rates could go higher a little bit faster because of the budget deficits.”Canadian Bonds Lose Most in One Year as Traders Switch Rate Bets
“The Liberals believe their plan will be revenue neutral, but this is uncertain since wealthy taxpayers often find ways to avoid paying new, higher rates, especially since the increase will send combined federal and provincial tax rates above 50 per cent in half of the provinces,” said Moody’s Analytics economist Adam Goldin.
There are various tactics, he said, including, for example, how money is given to heirs.
“Steep income tax increases in other countries have often failed to generate the forecast sums because targeted taxpayers often found ways to skirt the higher rates.”Will Canada's wealthy skirt Justin Trudeau's tax hikes?
“Said economist Adam Goldin: “Because the new tax law did not grandfather in deals that were already under contract, anecdotal evidence of…”The risks (and rewards) of living in Ontario and British Columbia
“Exports have not seen such an appreciable rise, although the currency, the Canadian currency has fallen about ten percent over the last year”, said the report’s author Adam Goldin.Exports showing signs of life, but what took so long?
“Wealth inequality in Canada has increased,” Adam Goldin, an economist at Moody’s Analytics said. “But compared with other nations, the widening was minor.”Hudson’s Bay, Dollarama thrive as Canada’s retail landscape shifts
“Economist Adam Goldin parsed the numbers released from Statistics Canada this week that show total Canadian net worth (in constant 2012 dollars) rose $4.2 trillion from 1999 to 2012 with the largest gains going to households in the top 20 per cent income bracket.”Poorer Canadians getting more of a wealth boost from real estate than top earners
“Adam Goldin, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, a company that assesses economic data, told us it’s incorrect to say the D.C. area hasn’t had a recession. The company’s data show the region experienced consecutive quarters of declining GDP during the 2007-09 Great Recession as well in the early 1980s and early 1990s, Goldin said.
“(During) the Great Recession, D.C. was certainly impacted like the rest of the country,” Goldin said.”2016 GOP candidate Mike Huckabee says DC region 'never has a recession'
“Finally, some encouraging news for the little guy: while the latest StatsCan data shows the income gap between Canada’s poorest and richest widened slightly between 1999 and 2012, lower-income families benefited more from the housing boom. During that period, real estate’s share of total wealth rose to 57% from 46% for households in the bottom 20% income bracket, compared with just a six percentage point rise to 40% for those in the highest-earning quintile. Sources: Changes in wealth across the income distribution, 1999 to 2012, Statistics Canada; Canada’s Wealth Distribution Barely Moves, Moody’s Analytics Research, Adam Goldin.“The housing boom has been better for low-income Canadians
“Moody’s Analytics says British Columbia’s new tax on foreigners in the metro Vancouver area will do little to improve affordability for the middle class. In a research note out Friday, economist Adam Goldin poked fun at the provincial government’s new law, which took affect Aug. 2 and has led to reports of deal cancellations because of the additional property transfer tax of 15 per cent being charged to foreign buyers.
“The indefatigable law of unintended consequences has traveled to Vancouver,” wrote Goldin, noting the reports of widespread deal cancellations. Buyers had also pushed forward deals after the July 25 announcement to beat the tax, wreaking havoc on the province’s online land registry system which couldn’t handle the inquiries.
“British Columbia’s new 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers of residential real estate is designed to rein in galloping house price inflation to make housing more affordable for middle-class buyers,” wrote the economist. “Foreign demand, particularly from Chinese citizens, has been blamed for fuelling Vancouver’s rapid house price gains. The tax was meant to siphon demand to ease price pressures. Unfortunately, the poorly designed law has invited the law of unintended consequences to feature prominently in this tale, with the tax spurring a torrent of canceled deals.”
Goldin said there are two reasons the policy won’t have its intended consequences, adding that the tax change addresses the “wrong end” of Vancouver’s supply imbalance.
“Inadequate supply, rather than inflated demand, is driving prices higher. The single-family housing stock has been relatively unchanged since 1991, although multifamily stock has more than doubled over the same period,” he said, adding that, to make housing affordable, the average price of a single family detached home would need to be cut in half to $700,000. He doesn’t believe Premier Christy Clark and her government are looking for that type of price decline.
Goldin also took aim at something the real estate industry has complained about, namely that deals negotiated before July 25 but closing after Aug. 2 will face the tax, adding a huge unexpected bill for foreign purchasers.
“Because the new tax law did not grandfather in deals that were already under contract, anecdotal evidence of foreign buyers cancelling their transactions is pouring in, leaving sellers alone at the altar. What’s more, many resident buyers have pulled offers because they expect prices to decline,” he said. “These cancellations have knock-on effects because many abandoned sellers then have to cancel their own purchase. It may take several months to see how this plays out, but the law’s designers likely did not mean to cause such havoc.””Here’s why Vancouver’s property tax on foreigners won’t work